How the gacha probability calculator works
Each pull is an independent chance at the base rate, until "pity" rules raise the odds. Soft pity increases the rate on every pull after a set point; hard pity guarantees the drop on a specific pull.
With pity: P(no drop by n) = Π (1 − pᵢ), where pᵢ rises after soft pity and equals 1 at hard pity
Expected pulls = Σ i × P(first drop on pull i)
Many games publish the base rate and hard pity in their in-game details. Soft pity is often not officially documented, and the 6% per pull default is a community estimate used for some popular games; change it to match your game. The model assumes pity resets after each drop and ignores 50/50 rules for featured characters, which can double the pulls needed for a specific one.
Worked example
With a 0.6% base rate, soft pity from pull 74 rising 6% per pull and a guarantee at 90, the chance of a drop within 50 pulls is 25.99%, the same as the base rate because pity has not kicked in yet. The expected number of pulls per drop is about 62, and half of players get one by pull 76.
Frequently asked questions
What is pity in gacha games?
A system that raises or guarantees the drop rate after many pulls without a rare result.
What is the difference between soft and hard pity?
Soft pity gradually increases the rate after a set pull; hard pity guarantees the drop on a fixed pull.
Why is my chance with 50 pulls so low?
At a 0.6% rate, 50 independent pulls give only about a 26% chance. Pity matters most after pull 70 or so.
Does this include the 50/50 for limited characters?
No. If you can lose a 50/50, double the expected pulls as a rough guide for a guaranteed featured drop.
Updated October 2026. Results are estimates for education, not financial or medical advice. All math runs in your browser; nothing you type is sent anywhere.